{
  "id": "MODEL-BT-WEAPONS-004",
  "date": "2026-10-09",
  "sourceObservationId": "OBS-BT-WEAPONS-001",
  "additionalObservationId": "OBS-BT-WEAPONS-002",
  "status": "截图参数驱动的条件计算；不标为全枪逐发实测或真实对枪胜率",
  "assumptions": {
    "target": {
      "health": 100,
      "helmetName": "GT战术头盔",
      "helmetDurability": 50,
      "vestName": "MK-1防弹背心",
      "vestDurability": 110,
      "screenshot": "assets/screenshots/黑潮爆破_武器改装_头甲_半甲只有甲600全甲有头有甲1000.png",
      "userReportedLevel": 4,
      "ammoLevel": null,
      "ammoLevelNote": "用户推测四级弹；没有作为已确认输入",
      "userReportedProtectedHeadFactor": 0.749,
      "userReportedProtectedTorsoFactor": 0.648,
      "factorNote": "用户口述实测近似比例；原始跳字及舍入方式未提供，不认定为内部精确常数",
      "sg552FirstHeadshotRemainingHelmet": 16,
      "sg552ArmorObservationSource": "本轮用户回复：SG552打满50头盔一枪后剩16；因此该条件首发实际损失34耐久。跨距离及其他枪未逐件核验"
    },
    "engine": "既有烽火逐发碎甲公式作为黑潮候选规则；其跨模式适用性未通过本批静态截图独立确证",
    "armorDamage": "首段以面板甲伤作为有效甲伤候选；仅SG552首发损失34获得本轮用户读数支持",
    "rounding": "肉伤和甲伤使用显示整数，计算中不逐发舍入；0.749/0.648为用户近似测得系数",
    "distance": "同时计算甲伤与肉伤同比衰减、甲伤不随肉伤衰减两种候选；没有认定实际距离甲伤规则",
    "time": "第一发命中计t=0，TTK=(BTK-1)*60000/RPM，不含ADS、切枪、飞行、网络、漏枪与瞄准时间",
    "configurations": "比较截图已选方案；剩余预算非零的方案不能称其满改或各枪最优方案",
    "m82": "用户确认M82/AWM七级弹、目标四级护甲；两枪按完全穿透支路k=1单列，动作、漏枪代价与经济独立比较"
  },
  "formulas": {
    "twoHeadDamage": "B*[2-(1-k)*min(2,50/A)]",
    "criticalArmorForSgDisplayedHead62": 32.420833333333334
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "name": "SG552",
      "tier": "标准",
      "price": 1600,
      "remainingBudget": 0,
      "baseDamage": 25,
      "headDamage": 62,
      "armorDamage": 34,
      "rpm": 906,
      "advantageRangeM": 27,
      "capacity": 30,
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          "btk": 2,
          "ttkMs": 66.2251655629139,
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              "effectiveArmorDamage": 34,
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          ]
        },
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              "hpBefore": 51.39999999999999,
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            },
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              "armorBefore": 0,
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        "oneHeadThenChest": {
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          "distance": 30,
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  ],
  "findings": {
    "supported": "普通自动武器中SG552/PTR-32/KC17/K437/M14/M7/汤姆逊在首段条件BTK=2；价格没有单调换来纯爆头速度。MP5/P90为3发，枪档位不是致死门槛的充分代理。",
    "mechanism": "BTK取整使连续伤害优势在同一发数内不直接缩短连续命中TTK；跨过门槛则一次减少一个射击间隔。头部倍率、甲伤、射速共同决定结果，不能统一头伤倍率。",
    "thompson": "4000汤姆逊首段头2发约66.7ms，与1600SG552约66.2ms相近；纯胸口4发200ms比SG552的6发331.1ms快约39.6%，体现身体命中容错和伤害收益。",
    "distance": "30米汤姆逊和SG552均为条件3发头；M7/K437/M14仍两枪头，故不能把首段价格重叠外推到全部距离。50米MP5为4发；30米MP5在两种距离甲伤候选下为3或4发，保留规则敏感性。",
    "p90": "2400P90以显示头伤60/甲伤35复算，两发98.4857；临界头伤60.9225，接近整数显示和近似系数边界，需优先核两发实际血量。不能据截图锁死真实三发。",
    "m82": "七级弹穿透支路使胸伤100直接满足一枪致死；6300方案提供独特身体击杀能力，其经济争议应针对死亡重购而非价格没有收益。",
    "notProven": "未证明全模式价格失衡、真实对枪胜率、最优配装或20/点评分算法的因果作用；没有统一总战斗力权重。",
    "sr25": "SR-25售价3900，首段条件一枪头；2600M700方案也可一枪头且首段86米对比40米。SR25较高射速448对365与较大弹容30对20有差异，不能只凭同一枪头断言完全支配。",
    "m250": "3900M250首段胸口3发约218.2ms、弹容125；其头部2发约109.1ms慢于SG552。进一步说明高价收益可能在身体与连续作战，而非近距离头部速度。",
    "shotguns": "S12K/FS12显示每发8弹丸，同胸全中条件伤害约78.12/89.28；无甲原始合计112/128不能直接证明有甲一枪胸死。多部位分布、护甲更新和射程另列。",
    "m700Range": "原图0—200米水平曲线；本计算固定测点0/30/50/100米，均一枪头"
  },
  "verification": {
    "sgFirstHeadshotRemainingHelmetMatchesUser": true,
    "m82UsesDistinctPenetrationBranch": true,
    "twoShotClosedFormMatchesEngineForAllEighteen": true,
    "mixedExpectationMatchesIndependentRecursion": true,
    "mixedPureEndpointsMatchShotEngine": true,
    "m700EverySampledDistanceOneHead": true
  },
  "provenance": {
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      "KC17",
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      "M14",
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      "M7",
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      "remaining": 6800,
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      "gapAfterFirstLoss": 0,
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      "afterWin": 7600,
      "afterFirstLoss": 6800,
      "gapAfterWin": 0,
      "gapAfterFirstLoss": 0,
      "minimumRewardForFullRebuy": 1200
    },
    "m82High": {
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      "otherCostAssumption": 600,
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      "remaining": 2100,
      "afterWin": 5300,
      "afterFirstLoss": 4500,
      "gapAfterWin": 2600,
      "gapAfterFirstLoss": 3400,
      "minimumRewardForFullRebuy": 5800
    },
    "m82Bare": {
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      "full": 6600,
      "remaining": 3400,
      "afterWin": 6600,
      "afterFirstLoss": 5800,
      "gapAfterWin": 0,
      "gapAfterFirstLoss": 800,
      "minimumRewardForFullRebuy": 3200
    },
    "awm": {
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      "full": 7200,
      "remaining": 2800,
      "gapAfterWin": 1200,
      "gapAfterFirstLoss": 2000,
      "minimumRewardForFullRebuy": 4400
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  },
  "latestObservationId": "OBS-BT-WEAPONS-003",
  "sampleSize": {
    "configurations": 20,
    "singleProjectileCalculated": 18,
    "shotgunsSeparate": 2
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  "augChestDisplayConflict": {
    "base": 32,
    "bodyLocation": 35,
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          "effectiveArmorDamage": 35,
          "armorBefore": 110,
          "armorAfter": 75,
          "hpBefore": 100,
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        {
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          "effectiveArmorDamage": 35,
          "armorBefore": 75,
          "armorAfter": 40,
          "hpBefore": 79.264,
          "hpAfter": 58.52799999999999,
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        {
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          "effectiveArmorDamage": 35,
          "armorBefore": 40,
          "armorAfter": 5,
          "hpBefore": 58.52799999999999,
          "hpAfter": 37.79199999999999,
          "damage": 20.736,
          "branch": "C≥A"
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        {
          "shot": 4,
          "zone": "chest",
          "unprotectedDamage": 32,
          "effectiveArmorDamage": 35,
          "armorBefore": 5,
          "armorAfter": 0,
          "hpBefore": 37.79199999999999,
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        {
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          "armorBefore": 0,
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          "hpBefore": 7.401142857142844,
          "hpAfter": 0,
          "damage": 32,
          "branch": "无甲"
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      "pellets": 8,
      "allChestRaw": 112,
      "allChestOneShellConditionalDamage": 78.12,
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          "damage": 9.072000000000001
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        {
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          "damage": 9.072000000000001
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        {
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        {
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          "damage": 9.072000000000001
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        {
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        {
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          "damage": 9.688
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    },
    {
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      "allChestRaw": 128,
      "allChestOneShellConditionalDamage": 89.28,
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          "damage": 10.368
        },
        {
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          "armorAfter": 78,
          "damage": 10.368
        },
        {
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          "armorBefore": 78,
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          "damage": 10.368
        },
        {
          "pellet": 4,
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        },
        {
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          "damage": 10.368
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        {
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        {
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  "mixedHitMethod": {
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    "formula": "E[N]=sum(n>=0)P(N>n); P(N>n)=sum(h=0..n) choose(n,h)*p^h*(1-p)^(n-h)*I(Dhead(h)+Dchest(n-h)<100); E[T]=(E[N]-1)*60000/RPM",
    "referenceHeadShare": 0.25,
    "sensitivityHeadShares": [
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      0.5
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    "near": "所有常规参榜枪首段；约15米以内，按0米衰减倍率",
    "medium": "30米与50米等权两个测点，不宣称地图实际距离分布",
    "noMisses": true,
    "noActionTimes": true,
    "noReloads": true,
    "noFlight": true,
    "noHeadChestCorrelation": true,
    "rankingPopulation": "13个全自动主武器方案，含M700；半自动/手枪/身体一枪致死狙击另列；霰弹枪不纳入单弹丸榜。",
    "sensitivity": "甲伤两种距离规则、AUG32/35胸伤作为结果区间；P90头伤61仅为门槛压力测试，不改观测60。"
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      "rpm": 906,
      "intervalMs": 66.2251655629139,
      "muzzleVelocityMps": 683,
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        "handling": 65,
        "stability": 60,
        "hipfire": 37
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          "armorPolicy": "constant",
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            "name": "PTR-32",
            "price": 1600,
            "headShare": 0.5,
            "nominalMs": 201.74050632911394,
            "minMs": 201.74050632911394,
            "maxMs": 201.74050632911394,
            "nominalRank": 10,
            "bestPossibleRank": 10,
            "worstPossibleRank": 10
          },
          {
            "name": "SG552",
            "price": 1600,
            "headShare": 0.5,
            "nominalMs": 206.43625827814566,
            "minMs": 206.43625827814566,
            "maxMs": 206.43625827814566,
            "nominalRank": 11,
            "bestPossibleRank": 11,
            "worstPossibleRank": 11
          },
          {
            "name": "P90",
            "price": 2400,
            "headShare": 0.5,
            "nominalMs": 233.331013363029,
            "minMs": 232.80902004454344,
            "maxMs": 233.331013363029,
            "nominalRank": 12,
            "bestPossibleRank": 12,
            "worstPossibleRank": 12
          },
          {
            "name": "MP5",
            "price": 1200,
            "headShare": 0.5,
            "nominalMs": 322.9801829268293,
            "minMs": 294.3978658536586,
            "maxMs": 322.9801829268293,
            "nominalRank": 13,
            "bestPossibleRank": 13,
            "worstPossibleRank": 13
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "costFirepowerFrontiers": [
    {
      "mode": "near",
      "metric": "25%头部、全部命中条件；同时更低价且最差时间不慢于另一方案最好时间，才称这一指标稳健支配；不含动作/实际命中/功能。",
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "汤姆逊",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "M250",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "K437",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "M14",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "汤姆逊",
            "M250",
            "K437"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "AKM",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "AUG",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "AKM"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "P90",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "M700全自动配置",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "AKM",
            "P90"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "M7",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "汤姆逊",
            "M250",
            "K437",
            "M14",
            "AKM",
            "P90",
            "M700全自动配置"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "PTR-32",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "MP5",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "SG552",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "PTR-32",
            "MP5"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "KC17",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "AKM",
            "AUG",
            "P90",
            "M700全自动配置",
            "PTR-32",
            "MP5",
            "SG552"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "mode": "medium",
      "metric": "25%头部、全部命中条件；同时更低价且最差时间不慢于另一方案最好时间，才称这一指标稳健支配；不含动作/实际命中/功能。",
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "M250",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "M700全自动配置",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "M7",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "M250",
            "M700全自动配置"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "K437",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "M700全自动配置"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "M14",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "M250",
            "M700全自动配置",
            "M7",
            "K437"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "汤姆逊",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "M250",
            "M700全自动配置",
            "K437"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "AUG",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "M700全自动配置"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "KC17",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "M700全自动配置"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "AKM",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "M700全自动配置",
            "KC17"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "PTR-32",
          "dominatedBy": []
        },
        {
          "name": "SG552",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "PTR-32"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "P90",
          "dominatedBy": [
            "PTR-32",
            "SG552"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "MP5",
          "dominatedBy": []
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "corrections": {
    "m700": {
      "field": "100米肉伤倍率",
      "previous": 0.8,
      "corrected": 1,
      "scope": "原图0—200米水平曲线；本计算固定测点0/30/50/100米，均一枪头",
      "observationRevision": 2,
      "oldSourceArchive": ".work/blacktide_weapons_2026-10-09/history-v35/OBS-BT-WEAPONS-001-before-M700-correction.json"
    }
  }
}